A letter issued by NHS boss, Sir Simon Stevens and Amanda Pritchard, NHS Chief Operating Officer, has explained the third phase of the NHS’s response to COVID-19 and the health service’s priorities which has raised concerns amongst health experts that targets may not be met, a report published today by Draper and Dash explains.
With the release of NHS England’s “phase three letter” and the call for non-COVID health service to resume to “near normal” performance before winter, NHS leaders now have a clear view of what is expected of trusts across the country in recovering services following the COVID crisis.
However, health experts fear the targets set in an attempt to take advantage of this “window of opportunity” over the next few months may be challenging to achieve, these key targets including:
- Delivery of at least 70% of last year’s overnight elective and outpatient / day case activity by August, 80% by September, and rising to 90% in October.
- Systems must hit at least 90% of last year’s MRI / CT and endoscopy procedure levels by September, with an ambition to reach 100% by October.
- Trusts must hit 100% of their previous year’s First Outpatient Attendances and Follow-ups activity, be it face-to-face or virtually, from September.
Cancer Patients backlog
Covid-19 has seen a greater backlog of cancer patients awaiting treatment or specialist consultation urgent cancer referrals themselves having dropped 60% due to the pandemic. While this drop in urgent GP referrals appears to have come with increased Two Week Wait performance, it is likely that this performance will drop once again as patients begin to leave lockdown and seek support from their GPs. The report explains that the number of patients waiting more than 52 weeks for treatment has shot up over recent months, and this only looks set to increase, with two-month waits for first treatment showing significant drops as of May 2020, particularly those referred through National Screening Services.
As a result of these increasing cancer waiting lists and delays to treatment will have significant effects on the mortality rates and life expectancy for these patients, estimates ranging anywhere from 18,000-60,000 excess cancer deaths over the coming 10 years due to the impact of COVID-19.
In order to avoid unnecessary loss of life, it will be crucial over the coming months for trusts to take significant measures to improve efficiency and clear the current waiting lists for consultation and treatment.
BAME workforce
The report shows that significant planning is required to ensure patients and healthcare workers from a BAME background stay protected from unnecessary harm if a second wave of Covid-19 occurs.
Covid-19 cases among other ethnic groups are predicted to be five times higher than those seen across patients from a White ethnic group, with Black and Asian groups also predicted to significantly exceed this by two-and-a-half times, respectively.
With Covid-19 mortality disparities following a similar trend among BAME groups, including those within the healthcare workforce, it is clear that significant planning is needed now to ensure these patients are protected from unnecessary harm during the potential oncoming second wave.
