A new report has been published to explore a second wave of COVID-19 cases and potential response strategies for NHS trusts.
Using advanced analytics and data modelling, the report highlights some important areas of consideration to support response planning and modelling in readiness for a potential second wave.
The report explores a range of factors such as the hidden costs of COVID by condition, the future economic burden and potential rises in healthcare spend. It also focuses on testing data from this month, data by region and specialty and response strategies.
The report follows the recent increase in reported COVID-19 cases globally and aims to support healthcare leaders ahead of the Autumn and Winter months ahead.
Predictions for a second wave have been split into three scenarios mild, moderate, and a severe peak, with response policies included.
Orlando Agrippa, CEO Draper & Dash, said: “As NHS trusts across the UK attempt to recover from the first wave while preparing for a second, hospitals have adopted a capacity limit in the hopes of using this in the treatment of large volumes of critical COVID-19 patients. This capacity restraint could impose severe complications as the Northern Hemisphere enters its influenza season.”
“We share this report in order to provide a greater understanding of the implementation of social distancing measures, lockdown, and other response policies in minimising the impact of a second COVID-19 wave. We continue to support a number of providers in modelling recovery and response requirements as the country continues its transmission into Phase 3.”
“With the UK and other countries undergoing an increase in COVID-19 activity over the past few weeks, we have modelled a predicted outline of what the UK and NHS may face in the event of a second wave. Understanding and visualising the different scenarios and their respective severities will be key in establishing the most efficient response policies, with the hopes of minimising the second wave peak and managing a potential oncoming surge in demand upon our health services. This second wave modelling then diverges into the educational system as the summer period comes to an end and schools plan on reopening for the next academic year.”
