Oxford University and NHS Digital have developed a risk prediction tool to help identify patients who are at a higher risk of serious illness from COVID-19.
The new model has been developed from data analysis and uses algorithms that could be applied to support GPs and healthcare teams in consultations to provide more targeted advice based on individual levels of risk.
The developers said the model could also be used to inform mathematical modelling of the potential impact of national public health policies on shielding.
The project was a commission from the Office of the Chief Medical Officer for England to NERVTAG (New and Emerging Respiratory Virus Threats Advisory Group).
Professor Jonathan Benger, Interim Chief Medical Officer, NHS Digital commented “NHS Digital is delighted to use our data expertise to contribute to this hugely important piece of work. This is a comprehensive analysis of large patient data sets that will provide policy makers with high quality, evidence-led insights.”
Principal Investigator, Professor Julia Hippisley-Cox said “Driven by real patient data, this risk assessment tool could enable a more sophisticated approach to identifying and managing those most at risk of infection and more serious COVID-19 disease.”
“Importantly, it will provide better information for GPs to identify and verify individuals in the community who, in consultation with their doctor, may take steps to reduce their risk, or may be advised to shield.”
The research team are planning to utilise other datasets from across the UK to validate their model and offer a unified approach to evidence-based risk stratification policy.
Professor Chris Whitty, Chief Medical Officer for England “The level of threat posed by COVID-19 varies across the population, and as more is learned about the disease and the risk factors involved, we can start to make risk assessment more nuanced. When developed, this risk prediction tool will improve our ability to target shielding, if it is needed, to those most at risk.”
This team is led by the University of Oxford and includes researchers from the universities of Cambridge, Edinburgh, Swansea, Leicester, Nottingham and Liverpool with the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Queen’s University Belfast, Queen Mary University of London, University College London, the Department of Health and Social Care, NHS Digital and NHS England.
