A new research programme funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) has shown promising results for a model to calculate a person’s risk of becoming infected and then seriously ill due to COVID-19.
The model has been developed using data from over 8 million adults, and using data from 1,206 general practices. It uses factors such as a person’s age, ethnicity and existing medical conditions to predict their risk of catching COVID-19 and then dying or being admitted to hospital.
The data was used to create a risk prediction model, called QCovid, that provides a weighted, cumulative calculation of risk using the variables associated with poor COVID-19 outcomes. The factors incorporated in the model include age, sex, ethnicity, level of deprivation, obesity, whether someone lived in residential care or was homeless, and a range of existing medical conditions, such as cardiovascular disease, diabetes, respiratory disease and cancer.
It was tested from January to April 2020 and from May 2020 to June 2020, to find out whether it accurately predicted severe outcomes due to COVID-19.
The research results, published in the BMJ, showed that the model performed well in predicting outcomes. People in the dataset whose calculated risk put them in the top 20% of risk of death accounted for 94% of deaths from COVID-19.
Lead researcher Professor Julia Hippisley-Cox, said: “Risk assessments to date have been based on the best evidence and clinical expertise, but have focused largely on single factors. The QCovid risk model provides a much more nuanced assessment of risk by taking into account a number of different factors that are cumulatively used to estimate risk.”
“This model will help inform clinical advice so that people can take proportionate precautions to protect themselves from COVID-19.”
The researchers plan to regularly update the model as more data become available and behaviour in the population changes.
The research was funded by the NIHR following a commission by the Chief Medical Officer for England. Deputy Chief Medical Officer for England Dr Jenny Harries said: “Continuing to improve our understanding of the virus and how it affects different members of the population is vital as prevalence continues to rise.”
“This is why we commissioned and funded this research, and I’m pleased it is providing useful evidence to help us move towards a more nuanced understanding of COVID-19 risk.”
“We are working at pace and will maintain our ongoing engagement with patients, the healthcare profession and the voluntary sector on how we use this knowledge to ensure we continue protecting and supporting the most clinically vulnerable.”
The research team is led by the University of Oxford and includes researchers from the universities of Cambridge, Edinburgh, Swansea, Leicester, Nottingham and Liverpool with the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, Queen’s University Belfast, Queen Mary University of London, University College London, the Department of Health and Social Care, NHS Digital and NHS England.
